Incoming

Some years ago, I was attending a change of command ceremony between two officers with considerably different attitudes.  One of my friends leaned over and summarized the situation as, “We’re changing from a touch of class to a touch of crass.”  How’s that for a way to segue into the inauguration of the new President of the United States. 

 

It’s hard to know what to make of Mr. Trump.  He has said many things during his run for office and it is hard to know what was only a candidate’s rhetoric and how much he really means to carry out.  For example, will he really build a wall along the entire Mexican border?  Unless he intends to use force, I don’t see how he intends to make Mexico pay for it.  The same thing goes for tearing up NAFTA (it takes all the affected nations to agree to renegotiation) or the Iran nuclear treaty (there are several countries that are signatories). 

Mr. Trump seems to believe that he can carry out his agenda without any repercussions from the US people, from congress or from foreign governments; that there will be no tit for his tat.  And too much of his rhetoric is based on false hopes and premises. 

 

One of the loudest things said by many of his supporters concerned the ravages of the rust belt where so many factories have closed down in heavy industries like steel and automaking.  The truth is that, despite some car and steel manufacturing being moved off shore, there are probably more vehicles being made in the US than ever before, both by domestic and foreign car makers.  The reason for the rust belt is that such manufacturing has shifted from northern, traditionally industrial states, to other states in the south such as Tennessee and Alabama.  The reason many have moved or located there is that these states are “free to work” states where union membership cannot be forced.  For this, Mr. Trump is willing, even eager, to cut the US off from international trade without which the US will hamstring its economy.  In today’s world, no country can afford to ignore trade.  The imposition of exorbitant tariffs on imported goods will probably not sit well with the World Trade Organization or with countries importing US goods.  Retaliation against this will probably lead to more retaliation and so forth.  Mr. Trump may even withdraw from the WTO, again to the long term detriment of the US.

In his inaugural speech, President Trump firmly stated that America would become a very inward looking country, much like the isolationist and America First movements of the 1920s and 1930s.  It was only after the tragedy of the Second World War that America realized that, with its power and wealth, it had a duty to reach out to the rest of the world starting with the economic and democratic rehabilitation of Europe and Japan.  Although there have been some problems along the way, Viet Nam and Iraq comes to mind, this has been the US stance for over 70 years.  What happens when this is shattered?  Again we don’t know, but it seems like a risky experiment to me. 

Much has been made by Mr. Trump (and now our own Kevin O’Leary) that he is such an accomplished businessman that he will make a great President (Prime Minister); that the fact that he is not a professional politician somehow makes him better.  So let me ask you – if you had a bad tooth, would you rather go to a plumber or a dentist?  If you needed medical care, would you rather go to a medical doctor or an historian?  If you needed your car fixed, would you rather go to a doctor or a mechanic?  So isn’t it better to be governed by a good, experienced politician than a rich businessman?  For rich businessmen like Donald Trump to think otherwise is pure arrogance.  For so many people to think otherwise is pure foolishness.  If you think otherwise, please name one rich businessman who became a great President or Prime Minister.

Mr. Trump suffers from two things that make him unpredictable and potentially dangerous – arrogance and ego.  He has the arrogance of the top businessman who has always been able to run things as he wishes and has never had to start from the bottom, in their world where there are a few winners and lots and lots of losers.  And he has the ego to think that only he counts and has the right answers to everything.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t wish the man or America ill.  I hope he can succeed in improving things both for the American people and for the world.  Maybe better relations with Russia will make for a safer world.  But what of China, particularly if he isolates it or starts a trade war with that country?  Maybe he will improve the economic prospects for average Americans, but it is hard to see how he can improve on the 4.7% unemployment rate that the US currently enjoys.  Maybe he can defeat ISIL, but will he leave another void in the Middle East after he turns inward afterwards?  

“May you live in interesting times.”

Chinese curse

It will be interesting to watch the next few months as his presidency ramps up.  We will have a better sense then where his world is going.  I said once that I thought President Obama would have a hard time to living up to all of the expectations put upon him.  I now say that President Trump is going to have a hard time making good on all the promises that he has made.  But only time will tell.