Some have asked me about writing a blog about the war in Ukraine, but up until now I have been reluctant. Things seemed to be moving so quickly that I was concerned that whatever I said would be out of date by the time you read it. However, I now feel that some things are becoming obvious so that I can write something cogent about what is going on.
It seems quite obvious that this war (no matter what Mr. Putin calls it) is taking longer and proving more difficult than Vladimir anticipated. Ukrainians are not just giving up or welcoming the Russians as liberators. They are fighting very hard and apparently quite skillfully. The Russian Army is suffering significant casualties. However, the Russians are becoming more brutal as things become more difficult, amounting to an all-out assault on the Ukrainian civilian population. There are recorded cases of Russian military firing on civilian ambulances in addition to the bombing at the Mariupol maternity hospital. Both are clear violations of the Geneva Conventions. And yet one writer in a news story the other day accused Ukraine of such a breach because there were some videos of Russian prisoners talking to their families back home. Is this supposed to be equated to Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians?
The response by western nations has been, shall we say, less than overwhelming. Economic sanctions have been imposed which will eventually impact the Russian people and to some extent the so-called oligarchs. They will be of little concern to Mr. Putin who will continue to have all of the comfort and personal convenience of any potentate. It is only if the oligarchs and people of Russia rise up against him will it become an issue with him. Meanwhile, he will hide under the power of the state apparatus and continue his war. For some reason, the Russian people have proven themselves willing to accept the depravations of war and the casualties that go with them. A large uprising seems unlikely.
“. . . the principle of dictatorship; perhaps human nature was incapable of using power arising from dictatorship without succumbing to the temptations of its abuse of power.”
- John Toland, from his book “The Last 100 Days”
Russia has used the threat of nuclear retaliation to remove western military action from the chess board. The statement that Ukraine is not a NATO member seems pretty thin to me. Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan were members of any alliance, but western countries waged war in those places. So, it would seem that the mere threat of nuclear weapons has neutralized the west. If Putin gets away with it in Ukraine, no country in Europe is safe. The Baltic States, Moldova and Romania will likely be future targets. The west has to do more than devalue the ruble.
“The hottest place in Hell is reserved for those who stand neutral in times of great moral conflict.”
Martin Luther King
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